Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

Sportivo Ameliano

FT

1 – 0

Rubio NU

A. Arce 11' (pen)

7/5/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano45%

×Draw26%

Rubio NU29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.14

Sportivo Ameliano

1.48

Rubio NU

1.14

Sportivo Ameliano creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

1.76

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.76

Rubio NU

1.10

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.18

Rubio NU

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

71%

Sportivo Ameliano or Rubio NU

74%

Draw or Rubio NU

55%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

22%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

77%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

43%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

19%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

68%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

32%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

61%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.76 + Rubio NU defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rubio NU attack 1.10 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

45%

level

26%

Rubio NU scores more

29%

Sportivo Ameliano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. ArcePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff