Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo Ameliano: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

0 – 1

Sportivo Ameliano

A. Arce 64'

10/17/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 33Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rubio NU36%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Ameliano36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchSportivo Ameliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.19

Rubio NU

1.18

Sportivo Ameliano

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

1.24

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rubio NU

1.36

Sportivo Ameliano

1.24

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.13

Sportivo Ameliano

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

64%

Rubio NU or Sportivo Ameliano

72%

Draw or Sportivo Ameliano

64%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

15%

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

69%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

33%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

12%

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

70%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

33%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

50%

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 1.36 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.24 + Rubio NU defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rubio NU scores more

36%

level

28%

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

36%

Rubio NU at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

A. Arce

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff