Sportivo Ameliano 2–0 Libertad Asuncion

Sportivo Ameliano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

A. Contrera 86' (pen)

A. Falabella 49'

3/27/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 13Estadio Ameliano Villeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano34%

×Draw28%

Libertad Asuncion38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.20

Sportivo Ameliano

1.11

Libertad Asuncion

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.23

creates per match

1.45

0.95

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.23

Libertad Asuncion

1.45

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

0.95

Libertad Asuncion

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

62%

Sportivo Ameliano or Libertad Asuncion

72%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

66%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

13%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

67%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

30%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

10%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

70%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

34%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

47%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.23 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.45 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

34%

level

28%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

38%

Libertad Asuncion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Falabella

Sportivo Ameliano · D

7.6

Match Events

3'

Néstor Giménez

23'

Andrea Falabella

46'

H. Caballero← A. Molinas

49'

A. Falabella↳ C. Ocampos

62'

J. Sanguina← C. Ocampos

62'

A. Servian← S. Aranda

62'

J. Recalde← M. Fernandez

62'

M. Rojas← F. Carrizo

67'

E. Moreira← R. Cabral

68'

F. Vera← L. Ayala

69'

A. Fretes← S. Delvalle

74'

Álvaro Campuzano

76'

R. Villalba← M. D. Espinoza Acosta

78'

Jonathan Benitez

78'

A. Contrera← V. Larralde

84'

Néstor Giménez

84'

Néstor Giménez

86'

A. ContreraPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoLibertad

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots13

3Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target1

3Off Target8

2Blocked4

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

439Total Passes358

360Accurate Passes265

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0