Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano — League #252 2026

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
O. Cardozo 8'
F. Baez 90'
A. Samudio 28'
10/18/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 17Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Libertad Asuncion42%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Ameliano33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.53
Sportivo Ameliano
1.34

Libertad Asuncion creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.82
Sportivo Ameliano
1.50

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.18
Sportivo Ameliano
2.25

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
67%
Libertad Asuncion or Sportivo Ameliano
75%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
58%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
21%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
78%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
45%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
20%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
74%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
39%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
56%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.82 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.50 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
42%
level
25%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
33%

Libertad Asuncion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
F. BaezSportivo AmelianoSportivo Ameliano · D
8.2

Match Events

8'
O. Cardozo↳ M. Espinoza
17'
Lucas Sanabria
28'
A. Samudio↳ D. Barreto
45+1'
Álvaro Campuzano
61'
Robert Rojas
64'
A. Cardozo Lucena← A. Campuzano
64'
I. Franco← L. Sanabria
64'
O. Acuna← O. Cardozo
70'
R. Escobar← C. Ocampos
77'
F. Vera← S. Aranda
87'
Pablo Aranda
88'
E. Moreira← A. Samudio
88'
N. Barrientos← D. Barreto
90'
F. Baez

Possession

58%Libertad

Shots

15Libertad

Pass accuracy

54%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadSportivo
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots12
0.89Expected Goals (xG)0.80
2Corners6
16Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots12
3On Target3
4Off Target6
8Blocked3
6Inside Box9
9Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
416Total Passes298
332Accurate Passes203
80%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

League #252: Libertad Asuncion 1–2 Sportivo Ameliano

Sportivo Ameliano beat Libertad Asuncion 2-1 in League #252 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: O. Cardozo (8'), A. Samudio (28'), F. Baez (90').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.