Sportivo Ameliano 0–0 Libertad Asuncion

Sportivo Ameliano

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

P. Aranda 120+8' (pen)

I. Valdez 120+4' (pen)

A. Paredes 120+2' (pen)

I. Franco 120+11' (pen)

L. Melgarejo 120+6' (pen)

M. Espinoza 120+5' (pen)

L. Sanabria 120+3' (pen)

8/22/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano38%

×Draw26%

Libertad Asuncion36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.32

Sportivo Ameliano

1.35

Libertad Asuncion

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.50

Libertad Asuncion

1.40

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.25

Libertad Asuncion

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

64%

Sportivo Ameliano or Libertad Asuncion

74%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

62%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

17%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

74%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

39%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

15%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

73%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

38%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

51%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.50 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.40 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

38%

level

26%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

36%

Sportivo Ameliano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Giménez

Libertad Asuncion · D

8.0

Match Events

10'

Álvaro Campuzano

16'

Francisco Báez

44'

Sergio Fretes

46'

J. Giménez← A. Contrera

46'

R. Salinas← A. Samudio

67'

L. Melgarejo← M. Fernández

67'

I. Franco← A. Silva

67'

B. Merlini← R. Lezcano

71'

I. Valdez← S. Fretes

79'

C. Riveros← Á. Campuzano

86'

F. Ortellado← J. Giménez

89'

Brian Benitez

90+1'

G. Areco← R. Torales

120+1'

Ó. CardozoMissed penalty

120+2'

A. ParedesPenalty

120+3'

L. SanabriaPenalty

120+4'

I. ValdezPenalty

120+5'

M. EspinozaPenalty

120+6'

L. MelgarejoPenalty

120+7'

R. SalinasMissed penalty

120+8'

P. ArandaPenalty

120+9'

C. RiverosMissed penalty

120+10'

J. GonzálezMissed penalty

120+11'

I. FrancoPenalty

120+12'

A. MaízMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoLibertad

Overview

29%Possession71%

5Total Shots17

0Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots17

1On Target3

2Off Target5

2Blocked9

2Inside Box7

3Outside Box10

Passing

29%Possession71%

229Total Passes554

137Accurate Passes451

60%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3