Sportivo Ameliano 1–4 Atletico Paranaense

Sportivo Ameliano

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Atletico Paranaense

F. Vera 15'

G. Mastriani 73', 6'

Fernandinho 45+2'

B. Zapelli 32'

4/3/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio ueno La Nueva Olla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sportivo Ameliano31%

×Draw26%

Atletico Paranaense43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo AmelianoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.42

Sportivo Ameliano

1.17

Atletico Paranaense

1.42

Atletico Paranaense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.50

creates per match

1.58

1.25

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.50

Atletico Paranaense

1.58

allows per match

Sportivo Ameliano

1.25

Atletico Paranaense

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Ameliano ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sportivo Ameliano or draw

57%

Sportivo Ameliano or Atletico Paranaense

74%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

69%

Winning margin

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

69%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

33%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

76%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

41%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

42%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Ameliano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.50 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.58 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

31%

level

26%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

43%

Atletico Paranaense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Mastriani

Atletico Paranaense · F

8.5

Match Events

6'

G. Mastriani↳ B. Zapelli

15'

25'

32'

33'

45+2'

Fernandinho↳ L. Godoy

46'

Felipinho← M. Gamarra

58'

I. Valdez← A. Samudio

58'

G. Areco← S. Torales

64'

S. Bareiro← R. Torales

64'

L. Villagra← A. Contrera

71'

Hugo Moura← Alex Santana

73'

G. Mastriani↳ L. Esquivel

75'

L. Di Yorio← G. Mastriani

75'

T. Cuello← B. Zapelli

75'

R. Benitez← A. Canobbio

79'

E. Sarquis← F. Vera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportivoAtletico

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots15

2Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots15

3On Target6

6Off Target5

2Blocked4

6Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

343Total Passes525

261Accurate Passes453

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sportivo Ameliano vs Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense beat Sportivo Ameliano 4-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 3, 2024.

Goals: G. Mastriani (6', 73'), F. Vera (15'), B. Zapelli (32'), Fernandinho (45+2').

Atletico Paranaense controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio ueno La Nueva Olla in Asunción.

Sportivo Ameliano vs Atletico Paranaense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sportivo Ameliano vs Atletico Paranaense