Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Sportivo Ameliano

Atletico Paranaense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Ameliano

R. Torales 61'

5/30/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atletico Paranaense54%

×Draw25%

Sportivo Ameliano21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchSportivo Ameliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.90

Atletico Paranaense

1.61

Sportivo Ameliano

0.90

Atletico Paranaense creates 79% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

2.23

creates per match

1.17

0.62

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

2.23

Sportivo Ameliano

1.17

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.62

Sportivo Ameliano

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense+0.00on par

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

79%

Atletico Paranaense or Sportivo Ameliano

75%

Draw or Sportivo Ameliano

46%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

29%

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

80%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

48%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

22%

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

59%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

23%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

72%

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 2.23 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.17 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

54%

level

25%

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

21%

Atletico Paranaense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

T. Cuello

Atletico Paranaense · M

8.6

Match Events

22'

Alberto Contrera

44'

Aldo Maiz

55'

F. Vera← A. Samudio

55'

R. Torales← A. Contrera

61'

G. Mastriani← Erick

61'

R. Torales↳ F. Vera

70'

L. Di Yorio← Pablo

71'

Christian← B. Zapelli

71'

Madson← L. Godoy

72'

Madson

82'

João Cruz← Alex Santana

82'

E. Zaracho← A. Maíz

88'

Nicolás Rossi

90+3'

F. Franco← I. Valdez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSportivo

Overview

78%Possession22%

24Total Shots6

9Corners4

5Fouls16

Shots

24Total Shots6

5On Target1

11Off Target1

8Blocked4

15Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

78%Possession22%

558Total Passes159

476Accurate Passes81

85%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1