Sportist Svoge 0–3 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Sportist Svoge

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Spartak Varna

11/19/2021

Second League · Round 18Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sportist Svoge42%

×Draw27%

Spartak Varna31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist SvogeExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.15

Sportist Svoge

1.37

Spartak Varna

1.15

Sportist Svoge creates 19% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sportist Svoge

1.15

Spartak Varna

1.26

allows per match

Sportist Svoge

1.04

Spartak Varna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw

69%

Sportist Svoge or Spartak Varna

73%

Draw or Spartak Varna

58%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

20%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

75%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

40%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

16%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

68%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

32%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

57%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Spartak Varna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Spartak Varna attack 1.26 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more

42%

level

27%

Spartak Varna scores more

31%

Sportist Svoge at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff