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Spartak Varna vs Sportist Svoge — Second League 2018

Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
5/14/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 37Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Spartak Varna55%
×Draw25%
Sportist Svoge20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna
1.56
Sportist Svoge
0.83

Spartak Varna creates 88% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 102 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna
1.67
Sportist Svoge
0.87

allows per match

Spartak Varna
0.80
Sportist Svoge
1.46

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par
Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Sportist Svoge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw
80%
Spartak Varna or Sportist Svoge
75%
Draw or Sportist Svoge
45%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+
29%
Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
46%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
21%
Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
56%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
20%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
73%
Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.67 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartak Varna scores more
55%
level
25%
Sportist Svoge scores more
20%

Spartak Varna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Varna vs Sportist Svoge

Spartak Varna and Sportist Svoge drew 1-1 in Second League on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Varna.