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Sportist Svoge vs Montana — Second League 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Montana
Montana
9/3/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Sportist Svoge32%
×Draw30%
Montana38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.00
Montana
1.13

Montana creates 13% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 97 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.15
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.04
Montana
0.86

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
62%
Sportist Svoge or Montana
70%
Draw or Montana
68%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
12%
Montana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
63%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
26%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
8%
Montana 1+ goals
68%
Montana 2+ goals
31%
Montana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
45%
Montana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Montana attack 1.22 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
32%
level
30%
Montana scores more
38%

Montana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportist Svoge vs Montana

Sportist Svoge and Montana drew 1-1 in Second League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov in Svoge.