Montana 1–0 Sportist Svoge: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sportist Svoge

9/1/2024

Second League · Round 7Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Montana54%

×Draw26%

Sportist Svoge20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchSportist Svoge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.80

Montana

1.52

Sportist Svoge

0.80

Montana creates 90% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 102 away

1.59

creates per match

0.87

0.73

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Montana

1.59

Sportist Svoge

0.87

allows per match

Montana

0.73

Sportist Svoge

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Sportist Svoge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw

80%

Montana or Sportist Svoge

74%

Draw or Sportist Svoge

46%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

28%

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

78%

Montana 2+ goals

45%

Montana 3+ goals

20%

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

55%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

19%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

73%

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Montana scores more

54%

level

26%

Sportist Svoge scores more

20%

Montana at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff