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Sportist Svoge vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Second League 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
12/10/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sportist Svoge51%
×Draw26%
Maritsa Plovdiv22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.51
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.90

Sportist Svoge creates 68% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.15
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.75

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.04
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.88

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
78%
Sportist Svoge or Maritsa Plovdiv
74%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
49%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
26%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
78%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
44%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
19%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
59%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
23%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
70%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 0.75 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
51%
level
26%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
22%

Sportist Svoge at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportist Svoge vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Sportist Svoge beat Maritsa Plovdiv 1-0 in Second League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov in Svoge.