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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Sportist Svoge — Second League 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
10/15/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 13Stadion Maritsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv49%
×Draw26%
Sportist Svoge24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.50
Sportist Svoge
0.97

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 55% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 102 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.54
Sportist Svoge
0.87

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.46

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Sportist Svoge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
76%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Sportist Svoge
74%
Draw or Sportist Svoge
51%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
25%
Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
78%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
44%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
19%
Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
62%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
25%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
67%
Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.54 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
49%
level
26%
Sportist Svoge scores more
24%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritsa Plovdiv vs Sportist Svoge

Maritsa Plovdiv and Sportist Svoge drew 0-0 in Second League on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Maritsa in Plovdiv.