Sportist Svoge 0–2 Levski Krumovgrad

Sportist Svoge

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Levski Krumovgrad

7/16/2022

Second League · Round 1Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportist Svoge37%

×Draw29%

Levski Krumovgrad34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist SvogeExpected goals in this matchLevski Krumovgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.11

Sportist Svoge

1.17

Levski Krumovgrad

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

1.18

1.04

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sportist Svoge

1.15

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

allows per match

Sportist Svoge

1.04

Levski Krumovgrad

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw

66%

Sportist Svoge or Levski Krumovgrad

71%

Draw or Levski Krumovgrad

63%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

16%

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

69%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

33%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

11%

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

67%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

30%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

52%

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more

37%

level

29%

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

34%

Sportist Svoge at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff