Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Levski Krumovgrad vs Sportist Svoge — Second League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
2/13/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad51%
×Draw27%
Sportist Svoge22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.41
Sportist Svoge
0.81

Levski Krumovgrad creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.35
Sportist Svoge
0.87

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.76
Sportist Svoge
1.46

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Sportist Svoge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
78%
Levski Krumovgrad or Sportist Svoge
73%
Draw or Sportist Svoge
49%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
25%
Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
76%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
41%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
17%
Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
56%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
19%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
70%
Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.35 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
51%
level
27%
Sportist Svoge scores more
22%

Levski Krumovgrad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Levski Krumovgrad 0–0 Sportist Svoge

Levski Krumovgrad and Sportist Svoge drew 0-0 in Second League on February 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.