Sportist Svoge 1–2 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

Sportist Svoge

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kariana Erden

T. Kostadinov 49'

Justino 61'

E. Ignatov 8'

8/29/2020

Second League · Round 5Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sportist Svoge41%

×Draw28%

Kariana Erden31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportist SvogeExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.06

Sportist Svoge

1.28

Kariana Erden

1.06

Sportist Svoge creates 21% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 32 away

1.15

creates per match

1.09

1.04

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Sportist Svoge

1.15

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Sportist Svoge

1.04

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw

69%

Sportist Svoge or Kariana Erden

72%

Draw or Kariana Erden

59%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

19%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

72%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

37%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

14%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

65%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

29%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

57%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more

41%

level

28%

Kariana Erden scores more

31%

Sportist Svoge at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

E. Ignatov

39'

A. Ramadan← G. Dolapchiev

46'

R. Ignatov← K. Yanakiev

46'

49'

53'

61'

70'

70'

72'

78'

85'

85'

90'

M. Hadzhiev← K. Stefanov

90'

V. Michev← G. Tartov

Sportist

Kariana

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Penchin

39'▲A. Ramadan←▼G. Dolapchiev

46'▲R. Ignatov←▼K. Yanakiev

72'▲H. Ivanov←▼G. Yanev

90'▲M. Hadzhiev←▼K. Stefanov

Sportist Svoge substitutes

RamadanIgnatovIvanovHadzhievNikolovTomovDimitrov

Manager: V. Velikov

46'▲Justino←▼B. Damyanov

53'▲Matheus←▼E. Lichev

78'▲P. Pierov←▼V. Tsekov

90'▲V. Michev←▼G. Tartov

Kariana Erden substitutes

JustinoMatheusPierovMichevIlievApostolovVeskov

Match Recap: Sportist Svoge vs Kariana Erden

Kariana Erden beat Sportist Svoge 2-1 in Second League on August 29, 2020.

Goals: E. Ignatov (8'), T. Kostadinov (49'), Justino (61').

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov in Svoge.

Sportist Svoge vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sportist Svoge vs Kariana Erden