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Kariana Erden vs Sportist Svoge — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
CANC
16:00
Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
3/10/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 22Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden52%
×Draw26%
Sportist Svoge22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.54
Sportist Svoge
0.91

Kariana Erden creates 69% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Sportist Svoge
0.87

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Sportist Svoge
1.46

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Sportist Svoge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
78%
Kariana Erden or Sportist Svoge
74%
Draw or Sportist Svoge
48%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
27%
Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
79%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
45%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
20%
Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
60%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
23%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
70%
Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
52%
level
26%
Sportist Svoge scores more
22%

Kariana Erden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kariana Erden face Sportist Svoge (Second League)

Second League returns with Kariana Erden hosting Sportist Svoge. Match starts March 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kariana Erden host Sportist Svoge at Stadion Kariana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.