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Sportist Svoge vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
4/27/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sportist Svoge36%
×Draw28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.20
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.04
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
64%
Sportist Svoge or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
72%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
64%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
15%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
70%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
34%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
12%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
34%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
50%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
36%
level
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
36%

Sportist Svoge at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportist Svoge vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II

CSKA 1948 Sofia II beat Sportist Svoge 4-2 in Second League on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov in Svoge.