CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1–1 Sportist Svoge

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sportist Svoge

10/6/2023

Second League · Round 13Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II51%

×Draw26%

Sportist Svoge23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchSportist Svoge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.91

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.51

Sportist Svoge

0.91

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 102 away

1.56

creates per match

0.87

0.94

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.56

Sportist Svoge

0.87

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

0.94

Sportist Svoge

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Sportist Svoge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw

77%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Sportist Svoge

74%

Draw or Sportist Svoge

49%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

26%

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

78%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

44%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

19%

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

60%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

23%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

69%

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

51%

level

26%

Sportist Svoge scores more

23%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff