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Sportist Svoge vs Bdin — Second League 2018

Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bdin
Bdin
11/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sportist Svoge56%
×Draw26%
Bdin18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist Svoge
1.54
Bdin
0.76

Sportist Svoge creates 103% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sportist Svoge
1.15
Bdin
0.47

allows per match

Sportist Svoge
1.04
Bdin
1.94

finishing

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par
Bdin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist Svoge ↓

Bdin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sportist Svoge or draw
82%
Sportist Svoge or Bdin
74%
Draw or Bdin
44%

Winning margin

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
29%
Bdin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
79%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
45%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
20%
Bdin 1+ goals
53%
Bdin 2+ goals
18%
Bdin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
75%
Bdin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist Svoge at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 103 matches

Bdin away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist Svoge attack 1.15 + Bdin defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bdin attack 0.47 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sportist Svoge scores more
56%
level
26%
Bdin scores more
18%

Sportist Svoge at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sportist Svoge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Sportist Svoge 2–0 Bdin

Sportist Svoge beat Bdin 2-0 in Second League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar Tsvetkov in Svoge.