Bdin 4–3 Sportist Svoge: Result & Stats

Bdin

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Sportist Svoge

5/24/2024

Second League · Round 34Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bdin37%

×Draw31%

Sportist Svoge32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BdinExpected goals in this matchSportist Svoge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.94

Bdin

1.05

Sportist Svoge

0.94

Bdin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

0.65

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Bdin

0.65

Sportist Svoge

0.87

allows per match

Bdin

1.00

Sportist Svoge

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Sportist Svoge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bdin or draw

68%

Bdin or Sportist Svoge

69%

Draw or Sportist Svoge

63%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+

15%

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals

65%

Bdin 2+ goals

28%

Bdin 3+ goals

9%

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

61%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

24%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)

54%

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 0.65 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Bdin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bdin scores more

37%

level

31%

Sportist Svoge scores more

32%

Bdin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff