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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Spartak Varna II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
FT
1 – 1
Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
3/12/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 19Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo33%
×Draw22%
Spartak Varna II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.58
Spartak Varna II
1.87

Spartak Varna II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Spartak Varna II
1.24

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Spartak Varna II
1.70

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Spartak Varna II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Spartak Varna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
55%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Spartak Varna II
78%
Draw or Spartak Varna II
67%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
16%
Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
79%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
47%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
21%
Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
85%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
56%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
42%
Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Spartak Varna II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Spartak Varna II attack 1.24 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
33%
level
22%
Spartak Varna II scores more
45%

Spartak Varna II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Sportist G.Toshevo 1–1 Spartak Varna II

Sportist G.Toshevo and Spartak Varna II drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sportist in General Toshevo.