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Spartak Varna II vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Spartak Varna II
Spartak Varna II
CANC
13:00
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
10/22/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Spartak Varna II80%
×Draw12%
Sportist G.Toshevo8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Varna II
3.13
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.93

Spartak Varna II creates 237% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 40 away

creates per match

Spartak Varna II
2.13
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Spartak Varna II
1.10
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Spartak Varna II+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna II ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Spartak Varna II or draw
92%
Spartak Varna II or Sportist G.Toshevo
88%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
20%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna II wins by 2+
61%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spartak Varna II 1+ goals
95%
Spartak Varna II 2+ goals
81%
Spartak Varna II 3+ goals
59%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
61%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
24%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna II (draw refunded)
91%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna II attack 2.13 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.13

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Spartak Varna II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Spartak Varna II scores more
80%
level
12%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
8%

Spartak Varna II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Spartak Varna II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartak Varna II vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Match Preview

Spartak Varna II face Sportist G.Toshevo on October 22, 2023 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Spartak Varna II host Sportist G.Toshevo at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.