Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportist G.Toshevo vs Riltzi — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
CANC
12:00
Riltzi
Riltzi
11/11/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 14Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo43%
×Draw22%
Riltzi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.88
Riltzi
1.66

Sportist G.Toshevo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Riltzi
0.83

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Riltzi
2.29

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Riltzi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Riltzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
65%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Riltzi
78%
Draw or Riltzi
57%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
24%
Riltzi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
85%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
56%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
29%
Riltzi 1+ goals
81%
Riltzi 2+ goals
49%
Riltzi 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
56%
Riltzi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Riltzi away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Riltzi defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.88

Riltzi attack 0.83 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
43%
level
22%
Riltzi scores more
35%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportist G.Toshevo face Riltzi (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Sportist G.Toshevo hosting Riltzi. Match starts November 11, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sportist G.Toshevo host Riltzi at Stadion Sportist.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.