Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Riltzi vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Riltzi
Riltzi
FT
4 – 0
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
3/25/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 21Stadion selo Riltsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Riltzi71%
×Draw15%
Sportist G.Toshevo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riltzi
2.99
Sportist G.Toshevo
1.30

Riltzi creates 130% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 40 away

creates per match

Riltzi
1.85
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Riltzi
1.85
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Riltzi+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riltzi ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Riltzi or draw
86%
Riltzi or Sportist G.Toshevo
85%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
29%

Winning margin

Riltzi wins by 2+
51%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Riltzi 1+ goals
95%
Riltzi 2+ goals
79%
Riltzi 3+ goals
56%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
73%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
37%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Riltzi (draw refunded)
83%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riltzi at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riltzi attack 1.85 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.99

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Riltzi defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Riltzi scores more
71%
level
15%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
14%

Riltzi at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Riltzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riltzi vs Sportist G.Toshevo

Riltzi beat Sportist G.Toshevo 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion selo Riltsi in Riltsi.