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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
10/23/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 10Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo47%
×Draw21%
Lokomotiv Ruse32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.08
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.68

Sportist G.Toshevo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
68%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Lokomotiv Ruse
79%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
53%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
27%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
87%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
61%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
50%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
60%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
47%
level
21%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
32%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportist G.Toshevo vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Sportist G.Toshevo beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sportist in General Toshevo.