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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 3
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
5/7/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 23Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse60%
×Draw19%
Sportist G.Toshevo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.50
Sportist G.Toshevo
1.43

Lokomotiv Ruse creates 75% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 40 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
79%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Sportist G.Toshevo
81%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
40%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
39%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
45%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
76%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
42%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
74%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
60%
level
19%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
21%

Lokomotiv Ruse at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Ruse vs Sportist G.Toshevo

Sportist G.Toshevo beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.