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Sportist G.Toshevo vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
FT
0 – 2
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
2/27/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 16Stadion Sportist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sportist G.Toshevo69%
×Draw15%
Inter Dobrich16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportist G.Toshevo
3.19
Inter Dobrich
1.53

Sportist G.Toshevo creates 108% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
1.46
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Sportist G.Toshevo
2.49
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportist G.Toshevo ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Sportist G.Toshevo or draw
84%
Sportist G.Toshevo or Inter Dobrich
85%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
31%

Winning margin

Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
50%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
96%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
82%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
60%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
78%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
45%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
81%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportist G.Toshevo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 1.46 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.19

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
69%
level
15%
Inter Dobrich scores more
16%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportist G.Toshevo vs Inter Dobrich

Inter Dobrich beat Sportist G.Toshevo 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sportist in General Toshevo.