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Inter Dobrich vs Sportist G.Toshevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
FT
2 – 2
Sportist G.Toshevo
Sportist G.Toshevo
8/9/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 1Izkustven teren Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich39%
×Draw19%
Sportist G.Toshevo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Dobrich
2.49
Sportist G.Toshevo
2.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Inter Dobrich
0.85
Sportist G.Toshevo
0.75

allows per match

Inter Dobrich
4.38
Sportist G.Toshevo
4.13

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par
Sportist G.Toshevo+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Sportist G.Toshevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw
58%
Inter Dobrich or Sportist G.Toshevo
81%
Draw or Sportist G.Toshevo
61%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
23%
Sportist G.Toshevo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
92%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
71%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
45%
Sportist G.Toshevo 1+ goals
92%
Sportist G.Toshevo 2+ goals
72%
Sportist G.Toshevo 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
49%
Sportist G.Toshevo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Sportist G.Toshevo away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Sportist G.Toshevo defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.49

Sportist G.Toshevo attack 0.75 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more
39%
level
19%
Sportist G.Toshevo scores more
42%

Sportist G.Toshevo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sportist G.Toshevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Inter Dobrich 2–2 Sportist G.Toshevo

Inter Dobrich and Sportist G.Toshevo drew 2-2 in Third League - Northeast on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Izkustven teren Druzhba in Dobrich.