Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting San Jose vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
CANC
00:00
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
3/29/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sporting San Jose64%
×Draw20%
Puerto Golfito16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Jose
2.06
Puerto Golfito
0.91

Sporting San Jose creates 126% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sporting San Jose
2.11
Puerto Golfito
0.93

allows per match

Sporting San Jose
0.89
Puerto Golfito
2.02

finishing

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Jose ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting San Jose or draw
84%
Sporting San Jose or Puerto Golfito
80%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
36%

Winning margin

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
40%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
87%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
61%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
34%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
60%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
23%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
80%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Jose at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.02 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Jose attack 2.11 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.06

Puerto Golfito attack 0.93 + Sporting San Jose defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting San Jose scores more
64%
level
20%
Puerto Golfito scores more
16%

Sporting San Jose at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting San Jose face Puerto Golfito (Liga de Ascenso)

Liga de Ascenso returns with Sporting San Jose hosting Puerto Golfito. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sporting San Jose host Puerto Golfito at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.