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Puerto Golfito vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
2 – 0
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
10/27/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 16Estadio Polideportivo de Río Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Puerto Golfito30%
×Draw25%
Sporting San Jose45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.19
Sporting San Jose
1.52

Sporting San Jose creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 39 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.34
Sporting San Jose
1.31

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.74
Sporting San Jose
1.03

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
55%
Puerto Golfito or Sporting San Jose
75%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
70%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
12%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
70%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
33%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
12%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
78%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
45%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
40%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.34 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
30%
level
25%
Sporting San Jose scores more
45%

Sporting San Jose at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Puerto Golfito 2–0 Sporting San Jose

Puerto Golfito beat Sporting San Jose 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Río Claro in Golfito.