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Sporting San Jose vs Escazucena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Escazucena
Escazucena
M. Marin 77'
6/23/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Championship - FinalsEstadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sporting San Jose56%
×Draw22%
Escazucena21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Jose
1.90
Escazucena
1.08

Sporting San Jose creates 76% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sporting San Jose
2.08
Escazucena
1.28

allows per match

Sporting San Jose
0.89
Escazucena
1.71

finishing

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par
Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Jose ↓

Escazucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting San Jose or draw
79%
Sporting San Jose or Escazucena
78%
Draw or Escazucena
44%

Winning margin

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
33%
Escazucena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
85%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
56%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
29%
Escazucena 1+ goals
66%
Escazucena 2+ goals
29%
Escazucena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
73%
Escazucena (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Jose at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Jose attack 2.08 + Escazucena defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.90

Escazucena attack 1.28 + Sporting San Jose defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sporting San Jose scores more
56%
level
22%
Escazucena scores more
21%

Sporting San Jose at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
M. Marin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Sporting San Jose 1–0 Escazucena

Sporting San Jose beat Escazucena 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on June 23, 2020.

Goals: M. Marin (77').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge in San José.