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Escazucena vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escazucena
Escazucena
FT
1 – 1
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
R. Smith 60'
J. Valderramos 56'
6/16/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Championship - FinalsEstadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Escazucena39%
×Draw27%
Sporting San Jose34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escazucena
1.27
Sporting San Jose
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

Escazucena
1.51
Sporting San Jose
1.27

allows per match

Escazucena
1.06
Sporting San Jose
1.02

finishing

Escazucena+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escazucena ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Escazucena or draw
66%
Escazucena or Sporting San Jose
73%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
61%

Winning margin

Escazucena wins by 2+
17%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Escazucena 1+ goals
72%
Escazucena 2+ goals
36%
Escazucena 3+ goals
14%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
69%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
33%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Escazucena (draw refunded)
53%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escazucena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.02 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escazucena attack 1.51 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting San Jose attack 1.27 + Escazucena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Escazucena scores more
39%
level
27%
Sporting San Jose scores more
34%

Escazucena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Escazucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
J. Valderramos
60'
R. Smith

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escazucena vs Sporting San Jose

Escazucena and Sporting San Jose drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on June 16, 2020.

Goals: J. Valderramos (56'), R. Smith (60').

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.