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Sporting San Jose vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
FT
3 – 1
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
2/9/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sporting San Jose58%
×Draw22%
Cariari Pococi20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Jose
1.96
Cariari Pococi
1.06

Sporting San Jose creates 85% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 107 away

creates per match

Sporting San Jose
2.11
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Sporting San Jose
0.89
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Jose ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting San Jose or draw
80%
Sporting San Jose or Cariari Pococi
78%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
42%

Winning margin

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
34%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
86%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
58%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
31%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
65%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
29%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
74%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Jose at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Jose attack 2.11 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.96

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Sporting San Jose defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sporting San Jose scores more
58%
level
22%
Cariari Pococi scores more
20%

Sporting San Jose at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting San Jose vs Cariari Pococi

Sporting San Jose beat Cariari Pococi 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann (San José).