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Cariari Pococi vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
0 – 2
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
8/19/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 5Polideportivo de Cariarí (Cariari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cariari Pococi37%
×Draw26%
Sporting San Jose37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.35
Sporting San Jose
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 39 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Sporting San Jose
1.31

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Sporting San Jose
1.03

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
63%
Cariari Pococi or Sporting San Jose
74%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
63%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
17%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
74%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
39%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
15%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
74%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
39%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
50%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
37%
level
26%
Sporting San Jose scores more
37%

Cariari Pococi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Sporting San Jose

Sporting San Jose beat Cariari Pococi 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Cariarí (Cariari).