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Sporting San Jose vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
FT
0 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
2/20/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 7Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann (San José)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sporting San Jose59%
×Draw22%
Aserri FC19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting San Jose
1.90
Aserri FC
0.98

Sporting San Jose creates 94% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sporting San Jose
2.11
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Sporting San Jose
0.89
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting San Jose ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sporting San Jose or draw
81%
Sporting San Jose or Aserri FC
78%
Draw or Aserri FC
41%

Winning margin

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
34%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
85%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
56%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
29%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
62%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
26%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
75%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting San Jose at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting San Jose attack 2.11 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Sporting San Jose defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sporting San Jose scores more
59%
level
22%
Aserri FC scores more
19%

Sporting San Jose at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting San Jose vs Aserri FC

Sporting San Jose and Aserri FC drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann (San José).