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Aserri FC vs Sporting San Jose — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
2 – 2
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose
4/3/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto (Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Aserri FC34%
×Draw27%
Sporting San Jose39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.18
Sporting San Jose
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 39 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Sporting San Jose
1.31

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Sporting San Jose
1.03

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Sporting San Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
61%
Aserri FC or Sporting San Jose
73%
Draw or Sporting San Jose
66%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
14%
Sporting San Jose wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
69%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
33%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
12%
Sporting San Jose 1+ goals
72%
Sporting San Jose 2+ goals
37%
Sporting San Jose 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
47%
Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aserri FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Sporting San Jose scores more
39%

Sporting San Jose at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sporting San Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Aserri FC 2–2 Sporting San Jose

Aserri FC and Sporting San Jose drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto (Alajuela).