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Sporting Paulinense vs Independente SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Sporting Paulinense
Sporting Paulinense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independente SP
Independente SPadvanced
Unknown 83'
7/12/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sporting Paulinense25%
×Draw25%
Independente SP50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Paulinense
1.04
Independente SP
1.58

Independente SP creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sporting Paulinense
1.00
Independente SP
1.73

allows per match

Sporting Paulinense
1.43
Independente SP
1.07

finishing

Sporting Paulinense+0.00on par
Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Paulinense ↓

Independente SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Paulinense or draw
50%
Sporting Paulinense or Independente SP
75%
Draw or Independente SP
75%

Winning margin

Sporting Paulinense wins by 2+
9%
Independente SP wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sporting Paulinense 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Paulinense 2+ goals
28%
Sporting Paulinense 3+ goals
9%
Independente SP 1+ goals
79%
Independente SP 2+ goals
47%
Independente SP 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sporting Paulinense (draw refunded)
33%
Independente SP (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Paulinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Paulinense attack 1.00 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Sporting Paulinense defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sporting Paulinense scores more
25%
level
25%
Independente SP scores more
50%

Independente SP at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Paulinense vs Independente SP

Independente SP beat Sporting Paulinense 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 12, 2026.

Goals: ? (83').