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Independente SP vs Sporting Paulinense — Paulista Série B 2026

Independente SP
Independente SPadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Paulinense
Sporting Paulinense
Lucas Lino 62', 30'
S. Neres 82'
7/19/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Independente SP67%
×Draw19%
Sporting Paulinense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP
2.18
Sporting Paulinense
0.86

Independente SP creates 153% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Independente SP
3.07
Sporting Paulinense
0.86

allows per match

Independente SP
0.87
Sporting Paulinense
1.29

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par
Sporting Paulinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Sporting Paulinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw
86%
Independente SP or Sporting Paulinense
81%
Draw or Sporting Paulinense
33%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+
43%
Sporting Paulinense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals
89%
Independente SP 2+ goals
64%
Independente SP 3+ goals
37%
Sporting Paulinense 1+ goals
58%
Sporting Paulinense 2+ goals
21%
Sporting Paulinense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)
83%
Sporting Paulinense (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Sporting Paulinense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Sporting Paulinense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.18

Sporting Paulinense attack 0.86 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Independente SP scores more
67%
level
19%
Sporting Paulinense scores more
14%

Independente SP at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Lucas Lino
62'
Lucas Lino
82'
S. Neres

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente SP vs Sporting Paulinense

Independente SP beat Sporting Paulinense 2-1 in Paulista Série B on July 19, 2026.

Goals: Lucas Lino (30', 62'), S. Neres (82').