Sporting Macau 0–2 Monte Carlo: Result & Stats

Sporting Macau

FT

0 – 2

Monte Carlo

7/9/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 15Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sporting Macau20%

×Draw18%

Monte Carlo62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting MacauExpected goals in this matchMonte Carlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.59

Sporting Macau

1.43

Monte Carlo

2.59

Monte Carlo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

1.82

3.36

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Sporting Macau

1.45

Monte Carlo

1.82

allows per match

Sporting Macau

3.36

Monte Carlo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Monte Carlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Monte Carlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw

38%

Sporting Macau or Monte Carlo

82%

Draw or Monte Carlo

80%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+

8%

Monte Carlo wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals

76%

Sporting Macau 2+ goals

42%

Sporting Macau 3+ goals

17%

Monte Carlo 1+ goals

92%

Monte Carlo 2+ goals

73%

Monte Carlo 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)

24%

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Monte Carlo away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Monte Carlo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Monte Carlo attack 1.82 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sporting Macau scores more

20%

level

18%

Monte Carlo scores more

62%

Monte Carlo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff