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Monte Carlo vs Sporting Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
FT
5 – 0
Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
4/9/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Monte Carlo90%
×Draw7%
Sporting Macau3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monte Carlo
4.34
Sporting Macau
0.87

Monte Carlo creates 399% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

Monte Carlo
3.75
Sporting Macau
0.86

allows per match

Monte Carlo
0.88
Sporting Macau
4.93

finishing

Monte Carlo+0.00on par
Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monte Carlo ↓

Sporting Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Monte Carlo or draw
97%
Monte Carlo or Sporting Macau
93%
Draw or Sporting Macau
10%

Winning margin

Monte Carlo wins by 2+
77%
Sporting Macau wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Monte Carlo 1+ goals
98%
Monte Carlo 2+ goals
92%
Monte Carlo 3+ goals
77%
Sporting Macau 1+ goals
58%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
22%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Monte Carlo (draw refunded)
96%
Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monte Carlo at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monte Carlo attack 3.75 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 4.34

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Monte Carlo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Monte Carlo scores more
90%
level
7%
Sporting Macau scores more
3%

Monte Carlo at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Monte Carlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monte Carlo vs Sporting Macau

Monte Carlo beat Sporting Macau 5-0 in Primeira Divisão on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.