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Sporting Macau vs Chiba — Primeira Divisão 2026

Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Chiba
Chiba
7/6/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sporting Macau20%
×Draw17%
Chiba63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Macau
1.63
Chiba
2.93

Chiba creates 80% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sporting Macau
1.45
Chiba
2.50

allows per match

Sporting Macau
3.36
Chiba
1.81

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par
Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw
37%
Sporting Macau or Chiba
83%
Draw or Chiba
80%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+
9%
Chiba wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals
80%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
48%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
22%
Chiba 1+ goals
94%
Chiba 2+ goals
78%
Chiba 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
24%
Chiba (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Chiba away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Chiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chiba attack 2.50 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sporting Macau scores more
20%
level
17%
Chiba scores more
63%

Chiba at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Sporting Macau 0–7 Chiba

Chiba beat Sporting Macau 7-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 6, 2025.