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Chiba vs Sporting Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Chiba
Chiba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
5/3/2025Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chiba80%
×Draw11%
Sporting Macau9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiba
3.82
Sporting Macau
1.28

Chiba creates 198% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

Chiba
2.71
Sporting Macau
0.86

allows per match

Chiba
1.71
Sporting Macau
4.93

finishing

Chiba+0.00on par
Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiba ↓

Sporting Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Chiba or draw
91%
Chiba or Sporting Macau
89%
Draw or Sporting Macau
20%

Winning margin

Chiba wins by 2+
64%
Sporting Macau wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chiba 1+ goals
98%
Chiba 2+ goals
88%
Chiba 3+ goals
71%
Sporting Macau 1+ goals
72%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
37%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chiba (draw refunded)
90%
Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiba at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiba attack 2.71 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.82

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Chiba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Chiba scores more
80%
level
11%
Sporting Macau scores more
9%

Chiba at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Chiba 3–1 Sporting Macau

Chiba beat Sporting Macau 3-1 in Primeira Divisão on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.