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Sporting Macau vs Benfica — Primeira Divisão 2026

Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
FT
0 – 2
Benfica
Benfica
4/29/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 9Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Macau19%
×Draw17%
Benfica64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Macau
1.55
Benfica
2.87

Benfica creates 85% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sporting Macau
1.45
Benfica
2.38

allows per match

Sporting Macau
3.36
Benfica
1.66

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw
36%
Sporting Macau or Benfica
83%
Draw or Benfica
81%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+
8%
Benfica wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals
79%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
46%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
20%
Benfica 1+ goals
94%
Benfica 2+ goals
77%
Benfica 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
23%
Benfica (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Benfica defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Benfica attack 2.38 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting Macau scores more
19%
level
17%
Benfica scores more
64%

Benfica at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Macau vs Benfica

Benfica beat Sporting Macau 2-0 in Primeira Divisão on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.