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Benfica vs Sporting Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Benfica
Benfica
FT
3 – 0
Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
7/29/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 18Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Benfica86%
×Draw8%
Sporting Macau5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
4.16
Sporting Macau
1.05

Benfica creates 296% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 28 away

creates per match

Benfica
3.39
Sporting Macau
0.86

allows per match

Benfica
1.24
Sporting Macau
4.93

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Sporting Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
95%
Benfica or Sporting Macau
92%
Draw or Sporting Macau
14%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
72%
Sporting Macau wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
98%
Benfica 2+ goals
91%
Benfica 3+ goals
75%
Sporting Macau 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
28%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
94%
Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 3.39, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 3.39 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 4.16

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Benfica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Benfica scores more
86%
level
8%
Sporting Macau scores more
5%

Benfica at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Sporting Macau

Benfica beat Sporting Macau 3-0 in Primeira Divisão on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.