Sporting Lagos 1–2 Plateau United: Result & Stats

Sporting Lagos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Plateau United

J. Alukwu 69'

B. Mundi 42'

I. Chimezie 5'

6/12/2024

NPFL · Round 36Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos58%

×Draw26%

Plateau United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting LagosExpected goals in this matchPlateau United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.67

Sporting Lagos

1.51

Plateau United

0.67

Sporting Lagos creates 125% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 127 away

1.63

creates per match

0.65

0.68

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sporting Lagos

1.63

Plateau United

0.65

allows per match

Sporting Lagos

0.68

Plateau United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Plateau United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Plateau United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw

84%

Sporting Lagos or Plateau United

74%

Draw or Plateau United

42%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+

30%

Plateau United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Lagos 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Lagos 3+ goals

19%

Plateau United 1+ goals

49%

Plateau United 2+ goals

15%

Plateau United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)

78%

Plateau United (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Plateau United away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Plateau United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Plateau United attack 0.65 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more

58%

level

26%

Plateau United scores more

16%

Sporting Lagos at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

I. Chimezie

42'

B. Mundi

54'

J. Lokosa← J. Lokosa

54'

N. Akpesiri← N. Akpesiri

69'

J. Alukwu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff