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Plateau United vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
A. Hilary 75'
12/28/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 16Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Plateau United69%
×Draw22%
Sporting Lagos9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.69
Sporting Lagos
0.43

Plateau United creates 293% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 19 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
91%
Plateau United or Sporting Lagos
78%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
31%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
40%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
82%
Plateau United 2+ goals
50%
Plateau United 3+ goals
24%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
35%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
7%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
89%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Plateau United scores more
69%
level
22%
Sporting Lagos scores more
9%

Plateau United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
C. Orji
40'
54'
55'
75'
A. Hilary
77'
84'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plateau United vs Sporting Lagos

Plateau United beat Sporting Lagos 1-0 in NPFL on December 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Hilary (75').

The match was played at Jos International Stadium in Jos.