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Sporting Lagos vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
J. Lokosa 33'
S. Tiza 61'
4/3/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 28Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos60%
×Draw25%
Lobi Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Lagos
1.55
Lobi Stars
0.60

Sporting Lagos creates 158% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 113 away

creates per match

Sporting Lagos
1.63
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Sporting Lagos
0.68
Lobi Stars
1.48

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw
86%
Sporting Lagos or Lobi Stars
75%
Draw or Lobi Stars
40%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
33%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
79%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
46%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
20%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
45%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
12%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
81%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more
60%
level
25%
Lobi Stars scores more
14%

Sporting Lagos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
33'
J. Lokosa
58'
61'
S. Tiza
63'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Sporting Lagos 1–1 Lobi Stars

Sporting Lagos and Lobi Stars drew 1-1 in NPFL on April 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Lokosa (33'), S. Tiza (61').

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.