Lobi Stars 1–0 Sporting Lagos: Result & Stats

Lobi Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Lagos

11/12/2023

NPFL · Round 8Lafia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lobi Stars61%

×Draw25%

Sporting Lagos14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobi StarsExpected goals in this matchSporting Lagos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.58

Lobi Stars

1.54

Sporting Lagos

0.58

Lobi Stars creates 166% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 19 away

1.46

creates per match

0.42

0.75

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Lobi Stars

1.46

Sporting Lagos

0.42

allows per match

Lobi Stars

0.75

Sporting Lagos

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Sporting Lagos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw

86%

Lobi Stars or Sporting Lagos

75%

Draw or Sporting Lagos

39%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

33%

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

79%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

45%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

20%

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals

44%

Sporting Lagos 2+ goals

12%

Sporting Lagos 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

81%

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lobi Stars scores more

61%

level

25%

Sporting Lagos scores more

14%

Lobi Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff