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Sporting Lagos vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kwara United
Kwara United
3/17/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 26Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos61%
×Draw25%
Kwara United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Lagos
1.59
Kwara United
0.63

Sporting Lagos creates 152% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

creates per match

Sporting Lagos
1.63
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Sporting Lagos
0.68
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw
85%
Sporting Lagos or Kwara United
75%
Draw or Kwara United
39%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
33%
Kwara United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
80%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
47%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
21%
Kwara United 1+ goals
47%
Kwara United 2+ goals
13%
Kwara United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
81%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more
61%
level
25%
Kwara United scores more
15%

Sporting Lagos at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Lagos vs Kwara United

Sporting Lagos beat Kwara United 2-0 in NPFL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.